5. THE APARTMENT MARKET TODAY

In Winnipeg the demand for apartment accommodation in recent years has been high not so much because of the rate of growth of the population but rather because of the internal market structure. It is not the rate of growth of population which is the most important component of the apartment market, but rather the size and characteristics of those groups in the population who provide the effective demand for apartment accommodation. We are now feeling the results of the post-war baby boom; there was a very sharp increase in the number of children born in the years immediately following the end of the war. These children are now young adults who are forming their own families and households, and their influence is very significant in the current demand for apartment accommodation. Between 1941 and 1951 a total of 77,208 children were born in the Metropolitan area. These are now young adults between the ages of 18 and 28, and a large proportion of them are in the apartment market.

During this period there was some significant in-migration of people in these age groups, because in 1966, the total number of persons 18 to 28 years old in the metro area was 84,429.

Between 1961 [XMLmind] 1966 the housing industry produced about 19,000 dwelling units in Metropolitan Winnipeg of which about 7,800 were apartments. Between the same years there were 15,072 new households formed in Metro (the difference between the number of new dwellings and the number of new households can be accounted for by demolitions and vacancies). It is not possible to know, on the basis of the available data, how many of these were family households and how many were non-family households. Nor is it possible to know how many of the 84,429 individuals in the 18 to 28 years of age group formed part of these new households. Nevertheless, even if one assumes the extreme situation, i.e. that this age group supplied the members of all the new households (which is most unlikely), and even if some realistic allowance is made for members of this group who were not seeking new accommodation in 1968, it still seems clear that there remains an enormous pool of potential demand for dwellings, a very significant part of which is for apartment dwellings. If one were to add to this young adult group the potential demand which exists at the other end of the age scale the over 55's it becomes apparent that the apartment market at the present time is not saturated, and does not appear to be in any danger of saturation in the foreseeable future.